Habitat suitability models of saproxylic red-listed boreal forest species in long-term matrix management: Cost-effective measures for multi-species conservation

Understanding of how a large landscape or network of conservation areas and habitats of red-listed species change in time is an important topic when addressing the temporal interplay between protected areas and matrix. We developed models of habitat suitability indices (HSI) for saproxylic red-listed invertebrate and fungal species, accounting for roughly 70% of all red-listed boreal forest species of the study area in eastern Finland. By using a forestry planning program that incorporates various optimisation methods we analysed trade-offs between timber production and amount of habitats of saproxylic red-listed species within a 60-year period. We also produced production possibility frontiers that show how to increase quality of the matrix with least costs. Moreover, we analysed how habitat suitability criteria used in optimisations affect the area of different habitat quality classes. Our analysis shows that by adopting HSI models in long-term matrix management, it is possible to increase habitats for several red-listed species without substantial losses in timber production. The increase in habitat area is achieved mainly by decreasing the area that is thinned compared to intensive timber production plan. In the long term, this seems to be a novel cost-effective method to increase the quality of the matrix for red-listed saproxylic species. However, the selected optimisation method and the criteria or specification of the management objective for red-listed forest species have a strong effect on results when HSI models are used in conservation planning. Therefore any practical application must be performed with great care.