Consumption impacts by marine mammals, fish, and seabirds on the Gulf of Maine–Georges Bank Atlantic herring (Clupea harengus) complex during the years 1977–2002

Overholtz, W. J. and Link, J. S. 2007. Consumption impacts by marine mammals, fish, and seabirds on the Gulf of Maine–Georges Bank Atlantic herring (Clupea harengus) complex during the years 1977–2002. ICES Journal of Marine Science, 64: 83–96. A comprehensive study of the impact of predation during the years 1977–2002 on the Gulf of Maine–Georges Bank herring complex is presented. An uncertainty approach was used to model input variables such as predator stock size, daily ration, and diet composition. Statistical distributions were constructed on the basis of available data, producing informative and uninformative inputs for estimating herring consumption within an uncertainty framework. Consumption of herring by predators tracked herring abundance closely during the study period, as this important prey species recovered following an almost complete collapse during the late 1960s and 1970s. Annual consumption of Atlantic herring by four groups of predators, demersal fish, marine mammals, large pelagic fish, and seabirds, averaged just 58 000 t in the late 1970s, increased to 123 000 t between 1986 and 1989, 290 000 t between 1990 and 1994, and 310 000 t during the years 1998–2002. Demersal fish consumed the largest proportion of this total, followed by marine mammals, large pelagic fish, and seabirds. Sensitivity analyses suggest that future emphasis should be placed on collecting time-series of diet composition data for marine mammals, large pelagic fish, and seabirds, with additional monitoring focused on the abundance of seabirds and daily rations of all groups.