Five-year follow-up of participants diagnosed with chronic airflow obstruction in a South African Burden of Obstructive Lung Disease (BOLD) survey

A community-based prevalence survey performed in two suburbs in Cape Town, South Africa (SA), in 2005, using the international Burden of Obstructive Lung Disease (BOLD) method, confirmed a prevalence of chronic airflow obstruction (CAO) in 23.1% of adults aged >40 years. To study the clinical course and prognosis over 5 years of patients with CAO identified in the 2005 survey. Patients with CAO in 2005 were invited to participate. Standard BOLD and modified questionnaires were completed. Spirometry was performed using spirometers of the same make as in 2005. Of 196 eligible participants from BOLD 2005, 45 (23.0%) had died, 8 from respiratory causes, 10 from cardiovascular causes and 6 from other known causes, while in 21 cases the cause of death was not known. On multivariate analysis, only age and Global initiative for Obstructive Lung Disease (GOLD) stage 4 disease at baseline were significantly associated with death. Of the 151 survivors, 11 (5.6% of the original cohort) were unavailable and 33 (16.8%) declined or had medical exclusions. One hundred and seven survivors were enrolled in the follow-up study (54.6%, median age 63.1 years, 45.8% males). Post-bronchodilator spirometry performed in 106 participants failed to confirm CAO, defined as a forced expiratory volume in 1 second (FEV1)/forced vital capacity (FVC) ratio of