Impact of heat waves on nonaccidental deaths in Jinan, China, and associated risk factors

An ecological study and a case-crossover analysis were conducted to evaluate the impact of heat waves on nonaccidental deaths, and to identify contributing factors of population vulnerability to heat-related deaths in Jinan, China. Daily death data and meteorological data were collected for summer months (June to August) of 2012–2013. Excess mortality was calculated and multivariate linear regression models were used to assess the increased risk of heat waves on deaths. Univariate and multivariate logistic regression models were performed to estimate the odd ratios (ORs) of risk factors and their 95 % confidence intervals (CIs). Overall, heat waves were related to 24.88 % excess deaths of total nonaccidental deaths and 31.33 % excess deaths of circulatory diseases, with an OR of 16.07 (95 % CI 8.80–23.33) for total nonaccidental deaths and 12.46 (95 % CI 7.39–17.53) for deaths of circulatory diseases. The case-crossover analysis indicated that older people were more likely to die during heat waves (OR = 1.233, 95 % CI 1.076–1.413) and more deaths occurred outside a hospital during heat waves (OR = 1.142, 95 % CI 1.006–1.296). In conclusion, heat waves have caused excess deaths and significantly increased the risk of circulatory deaths. The risk factors identified in our study have implications for public health interventions to reduce heat-related mortality during extreme heat events.