How pastoralists perceive and respond to market opportunities: The case of the Horn of Africa

•Macroeconomic models miscalculate supply responses by pastoralists.•Increased livestock exports mainly benefit large-scale traders and producers.•Livestock sales by pastoralists are determined by factors other than price.•The need for food purchases strongly impacts the timing of livestock sales.•Access to feed at periods of shortage improves market benefits for pastoralists. This article examines how pastoralists of the Horn of Africa negotiate the need for herd mobility (production) under conditions of variable rainfall and grazing conditions, with the necessity to market animals at fixed market locations. It addresses a set of related questions: (1) are herder mobility and other production decisions being altered by improved market opportunities; (2) what roles do markets play in pastoralist drought and drought recovery strategies; (3) which groups of producers are taking advantage of and/or benefiting from which market chains; and (4) what factors other than price help to explain why and when pastoralists sell livestock? The article concludes that macro-economic forecasts about supply response in the region may be overly optimistic and off target, because they fail to appreciate the non-price factors that influence pastoralist households’ decisions to sell livestock.