An investigation of permanent and transient changes in flood distribution and outflows in the Okavango Delta, Botswana

The annual flood cycle in the Okavango Delta is the basis of subsistence of the local population, providing water, arable land and wetland resources. Additionally, it forms the basis of a large tourism industry. Flooding in the Okavango Delta is, however, very variable both at short and long term time scales. Past research suggested the influence of factors such as tectonic activity, sedimentation, vegetation change or human influence on the spatial distribution of floodwaters. Change in the flooding regime at any given site is thus often perceived as an effect of permanent change in the system, and this perception results in unnecessary demands for engineering interventions in the system. However, it is possible that some of the perceived changes in flood regime are apparent transient effects of non-linearity of the system and variation in hydrological inputs. Hydrometric data and satellite-derived flood maps are analysed here using statistical methods (covariance analysis and double mass analysis) to distinguish between temporal and permanent changes in various parts of the Okavango Delta. The analyses reveal that system non-linearity causes the hydrological responses of the Okavango Delta to be non-proportional to the inputs. Periods of one to several consecutive years are present when flood extents and outflows are either considerably higher or lower (flow or flood regimes) than what would be expected considering the magnitude of inflow. Such effects are visible throughout the entire system, or only in some distributaries, and do not, as previously thought, represent permanent change in flood distribution. However, flood regime change that appears to result from a physical change in the system has been detected. This change has a nature of shift in flood distribution between the Thaoge and the Xudum, with the latter receiving more water after 1997 at the expense of the former and causing 2004 re-flooding of Lake Ngami.