Simulating the multi-seasonal response of a large-scale watershed with a 3D physically-based hydrologic model

The physically-based surface–subsurface HydroGeoSphere model is used to examine the hydrologic budget of the 286.6 km 2 Duffins Creek watershed, located 10 km northeast of metropolitan Toronto. The primary objective of this study is to demonstrate the utility of the model to simulate the three-dimensional hydrologic response of the surface and subsurface flow systems in a large-scale watershed driven by multi-season precipitation events. The hydrologic model was calibrated to a consecutive sequence of hydrographs resulting from all precipitation events between the months of April and December 1986, while hydrographs from 1987 were used to test the model’s ability for prediction. Results demonstrate that a physically-based modeling approach which treats the surface and subsurface flow systems as an integrated continuum can capture the dynamic response of a large heterogeneous watershed as driven by transient precipitation events over a multi-season period. It was also revealed that full coupling of plant transpiration and surface–subsurface evaporation processes into the governing flow equations was critical for the successful calibration of the hydrographs. However, the ability of the model to predict the shape of individual hydrographs in the following year, during which the annual average precipitation rate decreased significantly, was diminished even though the annual average stream flows were closely replicated. We identify a number of data gaps that contribute to the decline in the predictive capacity of the model, including difficulty in establishing an appropriate initial condition, vertical mesh refinement issues within the root zone, and the reliance on a largely empirical relationship that distributes the net capacity for plant transpiration among various factors that may change from one year to the next.