Evaluating multimedia/multipathway model intake fraction estimates using POP emission and monitoring data

This paper presents a structured evaluation of a novel multimedia chemical fate and multi-pathway human exposure model for Western Europe, IMPACT 2002, using data for PCDD/F congeners. PCDD/F congeners provide an illustration of the potential use of POPs (Persistent Organic Pollutant) data for the evaluation of such models. Based on available emission estimates, model predictions with and without spatial resolution are evaluated at three different stages against monitored data: at environmental contamination levels, food exposure concentration, and in terms of human intake fractions ( iF): the fraction of an emission that is taken in by the population. The iF is ∼3.5·10 −3 for emissions of dioxin in Western Europe. This iF compares well to the traditional non-spatial multi-media/-pathway model predictions of 3.9·10 −3 for the same region and to 2·10 −3 for the USA. Approximately 95% of the intake from Western European emissions occurs within the same region, 5% being transferred out of the region in terms of food contaminants and atmospheric advective transport. The fraction of PCDD/F Emission which transfers to the human population is assessed for Europe using a novel approach.