Can prescribed fire be used to maintain fuel treatment effectiveness over time in Black Hills ponderosa pine forests?

We determine the time frame after initial fuel treatment when prescribed fire will be likely to produce high enough mortality rates in ponderosa pine ( Pinus ponderosa var. scopulorum Dougl. ex Laws.) regeneration to be successful in maintaining treatment effectiveness in the Black Hills of South Dakota. We measured pine regeneration in disturbed stands and young pine growth rates to estimate the susceptibility of pine regeneration to prescribed fire with time since initial treatment. We also determined surface fuel accumulation rates for stands after prescribed fire to help estimate likely fire behavior in maintenance prescribed fire. Given our estimates of regeneration density and tree size, and likely fire behavior, we then used small pine tree mortality—fire effect relations to estimate the effects of prescribed fire on developing understory pine at specific times since initial treatments. Fuel treatments in ponderosa pine forests will lose their effectiveness within 10–20 years if regeneration densities are not controlled. The ability to successfully use prescribed fire to maintain low regeneration densities is dependent on seedling/sapling size and the frequency of burns. Current prescribed fire prescriptions and fuel loads are adequate to maintain low densities of ponderosa pine seedlings (