Relationships between period and cohort life expectancy: Gaps and lags

Relationships between period and cohort life expectancy: Gaps and lags

This paper offers an empirical and analytic foundation for regarding period life expectancy as a lagged indicator of the experience of real cohorts in populations experiencing steady improvement in mortality. We find that current period life expectancy in the industrialized world applies to cohorts...

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Veröffentlicht in:Population studies 2006-11, Vol.60 (3), p.257-269
Hauptverfasser: Goldstein, Joshua R., Wachter, Kenneth W.
Format: Artikel
Sprache:eng
Schlagworte:
Age
Approximation
cohort
Cohort analysis
Death
Demographic Change
demographic translation
Demographics
Demography
Estimate reliability
expectation of life
Forecasting models
Humans
Industrialized nations
Life Expectancy
Life tables
Linear Shift Models
Longevity
Mathematical analysis
mathematical demography
Models, Statistical
Mortality
Mortality Rates
period
Population Surveillance - methods
Regression analysis
Social science research
Trajectories
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Beschreibung
Zusammenfassung:This paper offers an empirical and analytic foundation for regarding period life expectancy as a lagged indicator of the experience of real cohorts in populations experiencing steady improvement in mortality. We find that current period life expectancy in the industrialized world applies to cohorts born some 40-50 years ago. Lags track an average age at which future years of life are being gained, in a sense that we make precise. Our findings augment Ryder's classic results on period-cohort translation.
ISSN:0032-4728
1477-4747
DOI:10.1080/00324720600895876