The cost of postponing biodiversity conservation in Mexico

Though Neotropical countries are the most species rich in the world, their biodiversity is threatened by the loss of native vegetation. Land conversion in Mexico during the last 30 years has been extensive and is representative of that of other developing countries. However, the effects of land use change on the required size and configuration of an adequate biological conservation area network are largely unknown. It is shown here that endemic mammals in Mexico could have been protected considerably more economically if a conservation plan had been implemented in 1970 than is possible today due to extensive conversion of primary habitats. Analysis of the distributions of 86 endemic mammal species in 1970, 1976, 1993, and 2000 indicates that the distributions of 90% of the species shrank during this 30-year period. At each time step, optimal conservation area networks were selected to represent all species. 90% more land must be protected after 2000 to protect adequate mammal habitat than would have been required in 1970. In addition, under a realistic conservation budget, 79% fewer species can be represented adequately in a conservation area network after 2000 compared to 1970. This provides an incentive for rapid conservation action in Mexico and other biodiversity hotspots with comparable deforestation rates, including Burma, Ecuador, Indonesia, the Philippines, and Sri Lanka. Due to ongoing habitat degradation, the efficiency of a conservation plan decreases with delays in its implementation.