Utility of post-liver transplantation MELD and delta MELD in predicting early and late mortality

INTRODUCTIONThe performance of early post-liver transplantation (post-LT) model for end-stage liver disease (MELD) or even its dynamic changes over time (ΔMELD) in predicting the mortality after LT is still controversial. AIMThe aim of this study was to assess the ability of absolute and ΔMELD calculated at days 7 and 30 after LT to predict 1- and 5-year mortality. PATIENTS AND METHODSData of 209 consecutive patients who underwent LT in two centers were reviewed. Patients who received LT for hepatocellular carcinoma were excluded, as well as those who did not survive for at least 1 month. MELD and [INCREMENT]MELD were calculated for each patient at 7 and 30 days after LT. RESULTSOne hundred fifty-six patients were included, mostly male [104 (66.7%)] with a mean age of 51.9±8.8 years. The main indications for transplantation were decompensated hepatitis C virus-related liver cirrhosis [138 (88.5%)] and hepatitis C and B virus co-infection [10 (6.4%)]. Grafts were obtained from 104 living donors and 52 deceased donors. Survival at 1 and 5 years was 89.7 and 85.9%, respectively, with a mean survival of 52.3±1.5 months. In univariate analysis, both absolute and ΔMELD at postoperative days 7 and 30 significantly predicted 1- and 5-year post-LT mortality. In multivariate analysis, MELD at postoperative day 30 was significantly associated with 1- (odds ratio1.24, 95% confidence interval1.14–1.35, P