Trends in population parameters and best linear unbiased prediction of progeny performance in a European F2 maize population under modified recurrent full-sib selection

Recurrent selection is a cyclic breeding procedure designed to improve the mean of a population for the trait(s) under selection. Starting from an F₂ population of European flint maize (Zea mays L.) intermated for three generations, we conducted seven cycles of a modified recurrent full-sib (FS) selection scheme. The objectives of our study were to (1) monitor trends across selection cycles in the estimates of the population mean, additive and dominance variances, (2) compare predicted and realized selection responses, and (3) investigate the usefulness of best linear unbiased prediction (BLUP) of progeny performance under the recurrent FS selection scheme applied. Recurrent FS selection was conducted at three locations using a selection rate of 25% for a selection index, based on grain yield and grain moisture. Recombination was performed according to a pseudo-factorial mating scheme, where the selected FS families were divided into an upper-ranking group of parents mated to the lower-ranking group. Variance components were estimated with restricted maximum likelihood. Average grain yield increased 9.1% per cycle, average grain moisture decreased 1.1% per cycle, and the selection index increased 11.2% per cycle. For the three traits we observed, no significant changes in additive and dominance variances occurred, suggesting future selection response at or near current rates of progress. Predictions of FS family performance in Cn+1 based on mean performance of parental FS families in Cn were of equal or higher precision as those based on the mean additive genetic BLUP of their parents, and corresponding correlations were of moderate size only for grain moisture. The significant increase in grain yield combined with the decrease in grain moisture suggest that the F₂ source population with use of a pseudo-factorial mating scheme is an appealing alternative to other types of source materials and random mating schemes commonly used in recurrent selection.