Medicine Based Evidence for Individualized Decision Making: Case Study of Systemic Lupus Erythematosus

To guide management decisions for an index patient, evidence is required from comparisons between approximate matches to the profile of the index case, where some matches contain responses to treatment and others act as controls. We describe a method for constructing clinically relevant histories/profiles using data collected but unreported from 2 recent phase 3 randomized controlled trials assessing belimumab in subjects with clinically active and serologically positive systemic lupus erythematosus. Outcome was the Systemic lupus erythematosus Responder Index (SRI) measured at 52 weeks. Among 1175 subjects, we constructed an algorithm utilizing 11 trajectory variables including 4 biological, 2 clinical, and 5 social/behavioral. Across all biological and social/behavioral variables, the proportion of responders based on the SRI whose value indicated clinical worsening or no improvement ranged from 27.5% to 42.3%. Kappa values suggested poor agreement, indicating that each biological and patient-reported outcome provides different information than gleaned from the SRI. The richly detailed patient profiles needed to guide decision-making in clinical practice are sharply at odds with the limited information utilized in conventional randomized controlled trial analyses.