Synergistic impacts of land-use change and soil property variation on non-point source nitrogen pollution in a freeze–thaw area

[Display omitted] •Land-use and soil has synergistic impact on non-point source nitrogen loss.•Influence of soil variation is stronger than land-use change nitrogen discharge.•Temperature directly impacts on non-point nitrogen pollution transport.•Simulations prove the long-term agricultural development did not increase loads. Quantifying the non-point source (NPS) nitrogen pollution response to the varied land-use and soil properties in highly agricultural regions is critical for the proper management of NPS pollution. This study simulated the NPS nitrogen loading responses to variations of land-use and soil from 1979 to 2009. The Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) was used to model the NPS organic nitrogen and nitrate loading in a freeze–thaw area in northeast China. The temporal–spatial simulations of land-use in four periods indicated that the NPS nitrogen loading responded to the disappearance of wetlands and the conversion of uplands to paddy rice. After updating the soil data, the watershed NPS nitrogen loading decreased, and the spatial distribution of the loading indicated that the NPS organic nitrogen was more sensitive than was the nitrate to soil variation. F-tests were employed to assess the significance of each of the predictor variables in five types of scenarios. Overall, the results indicate that the watershed NPS nitrogen loading is sensitive to changes of soil and land-use, but soil changes have a more significant impact. The results of this study also suggest that temperature has significant effects on NPS nitrogen yield and that it caused the twin peaks in the temporal scale. Increasing the temperature above zero in April caused a temporal shift in soil water movement and transported nitrogen pollution earlier in the year, causing an increased loading in water before the summer irrigation, which is advantageous for NPS nitrogen pollution control.