Coastal landfast sea ice decay and breakup in northern Alaska: Key processes and seasonal prediction

Seasonal breakup of landfast sea ice consists of movement and irreversible ice detachment in response to winds or oceanic forces in the late stages of ice decay. The breakup process of landfast sea ice in the Chukchi Sea at Barrow, Alaska, was analyzed for the years 2000 through 2010 on the basis of local observations of snow and ice conditions, weather records, image sequences obtained from cameras, coastal X band marine radar, and satellite imagery. We investigated the relation of breakup to winds, tides, and nearshore current measurements from a moored acoustic Doppler current profiler. Two breakup modes are distinguished at Barrow on the basis of the degree of ice decay. Mechanical breakup due to wind and oceanic forces follows ablation and weakening of the ice. Thermal breakup is the result of ice disintegration under melt ponds, requiring little force to induce dispersion. Grounded pressure ridges are pivotal in determining the breakup mode. The timing of thermal breakup of the nearshore ice cover was found to correlate with the measured downwelling solar radiation in June and July. This linkage allows for the development of an operational forecast of landfast ice breakup. Results from forecasts during 2 years demonstrate that thermal breakup can be predicted to within a couple of days 2 weeks in advance. The cumulative shortwave energy absorbed by the ice cover provides for a measure of the state of ice decay and potential for disintegration. Discriminating between the two modes of breakup bears the potential to greatly increase forecasting skill. Key Points Two breakup modes can be distinguished, differing in decay process and timing Significance of oceanic and atmospheric dynamics depends on breakup mode Breakup prediction is possible based on irradiance for the majority of years