Infiltration and instability in dune erosion

Forecasting dune erosion prior to a storm or over longer periods requires knowledge of the fluid forces on the dune sediments. To improve our predictive capability for this process, we propose a new model in which dune slumping occurs when water, which infiltrates horizontally into the dune, increases the overburden sufficiently to destabilize the dune. Horizontal infiltration is driven by suction of water from swash into the dune via capillary action and is a surprisingly strong process with rapid time scales. Because the elevated pore water concentrations increase the apparent cohesion of the wetted sediments, we also propose that the entire volume of wetted sand slumps as a unit when the dune becomes unstable and erosion can be modeled based on the force balance on a sliding block. Several versions of this model were tested, including a numerical infiltration model, a simplified infiltration equation, and an equation based on offshore wave forcing, rather than known forcing at the dune. The model was tested using data from a large‐scale laboratory experiment with a storm hydrograph to investigate the time dependence of dune erosion. Predicting slope stability using a numerical infiltration model with known forcing explained 72% of the observed variance in erosion rate, while a simplified stability and infiltration model explained 58%. Error statistics suggest that we captured the majority of the physics controlling dune erosion in this laboratory experiment and that the simplified model will be useful as a forecasting tool. Key Points Dune slumping depends on the ratio of stabilizing to destabilizing forces Horizontal infiltration of swash destabilizes the dune The proposed model explains 72% of observed variance in dune erosion rate