How counterfactuals of Red-Queen theory shed light on science and its historiography

A historical episode of evolutionary theory, which has lead to the Red Queen theory of the evolutionary maintenance of sex, includes two striking contingencies. These are used to explore alternative what-if scenarios, in order to test some common opinions about such counterfactuals. This sheds new light on the nature of science and its historiography. One counterfactual leads to an unexpected convergence of its result to that of the actual science but, nevertheless, differs in its causal structure. The other diverges towards an incompatible alternative, but this requires further contingent choices that also diverge from actual science. The convergence in the first counterfactual is due to a horizontal transfer of knowledge. Similar transfers of knowledge are typical for innovations of actual science. This suggests that contingent choices can merge as well as fork research traditions both in actual research and counterfactual history. Neither the paths of the actual history of science nor those of its counterfactual alternatives will form a tree of exclusively diverging bifurcations, but a network instead. Convergencies in counterfactuals may, therefore, be due to the web-structure of science as much as to the aims of the historians in question. Furthermore, the difference in causal structure between the actual science and its convergent counterfactual might become diagnostic for external factors rather than internal aims forcing a historian towards convergence. •Counterfactual histories concerning the evolutionary maintenance of sex shed new light on the nature of science and its historiography.•Counterfactuals can be equally successful as the actual science, but diverge and be incompatible with it.•The convergence of many counterfactuals may be due to the network pattern, not tree, of science and its history.•Keeping counterfactuals plausible requires more labor in divergent than in a convergent ones.•This could explain the ubiquity of convergence in counterfactual histories of science.