Schmallenberg virus: Predicting within-herd seroprevalence using bulk-tank milk antibody titres and exploring individual animal antibody titres using empirical distribution functions (EDF)

•Evaluation of Schmallenberg virus antibody titres in serum and bulk-tank milk at one simultaneous collection.•Bulk-tank milk antibody titres were highly correlated with and predictive of within-herd seroprevalence.•Empirical distribution functions used to explore distributions of individual animal serology results. Schmallenberg virus (SBV) is transmitted by Culicoides spp. biting midges and can cause abortions and congenital malformations in ruminants and milk drop in dairy cattle. Estimating true within-herd seroprevalence is an essential component of efficient and cost-effective SBV surveillance programs. The objectives of this study were: (1) determine the correlation between bulk-tank milk (BTM)-ELISA results and within-herd seroprevalence, (2) evaluate the ability of BTM-ELISA results to predict within-herd seroprevalence and (3) explore the distributions of individual animal serology results using novel statistical methodology. BTM samples (n=24) and blood samples (n=4019) collected from all lactating cows contributing to the BTM in 26 Irish dairy herds (58–444 cows/herd) in 2014 located in a region exposed to SBV in 2012/2013, were analysed for SBV-specific antibodies using IDVet® ELISA kits. The correlation between BTM-ELISA results and within-herd seroprevalence was determined by calculating Pearson’s correlation coefficient. Linear regression models were used to assess the ability of BTM-ELISA results to predict within-herd seroprevalence. The distributions of individual animal serology results were explored by determining the empirical distribution functions (EDF) of the individual animal serum ELISA results in each herd. EDFs were compared pairwise across herds, using the Kolmogorov-Smirnov statistical test. Herds with similar BTM-ELISA results, herds with similar within-herd seroprevalence and herds with similar mean-herd serology ELISA results were stratified in order to explore their respective paired-herd EDF comparisons. Statistical significance was set at p