Study on Driving Mechanisms of Land Use Change in the Coastal Area of Jiangsu, China

Bao, G.Y.; Huang, H.; Gao, Y.N., and Wang, D.B., 2017. Study on driving mechanisms of land use change in coastal area of Jiangsu, China. In: Lee, J.L.; Griffiths, T.; Lotan, A.; Suh, K.-S., and Lee, J. (eds.), The 2nd International Water Safety Symposium. Journal of Coastal Research, Special Issue No. 79, pp. 104–108. Coconut Creek (Florida), ISSN 0749-0208. Based on the 5 periods of satellite images, land use structure and changes of 3 cities in the Jiangsu coastal area were analyzed, and the relationship between land use structure and environmental factors was analyzed by “CLUE-S model + Logistic regression”. The results showed that, for land use change in the past 15 years, the changes in cultivated land, grassland and construction land were the highest. Land use change is mainly located in urban and surrounding areas, followed by farmland mainly located in the coastal zone. This study uses GIS spatial analysis and CLUE-S + Logistic regression model analysis, correlation analysis and regression analysis, to identify factors that impact land use in the coastal areas of Jiangsu and the driving mechanisms for this change. A dynamic model of land use, forecast and evaluation was used to understand environmental effects over the next 5–10 years in the Jiangsu coastal area.