The effect of exchange rate fluctuations to domestic price index

ABSTRACT IN TURKISH: Enflasyon, ekonominin en temel merkezi sorunlarindan biridir. Bu nedenle, hukumet politikalarinin temel amaclari arasinda fiyat istikrari yer almaktadir. Dalgali kur rejimi uygulayan ulkelerde fiyat istikrarinin saglanmasi oldukca zordur. Cunku doviz kurundaki degisim ve enflasyon arasinda yakin bir iliski bulunmaktadir. Uluslararasi literaturde, pass-through olarak tanimlanan, doviz kurundaki dalgalanmalarin yurtici fiyatlara yansimasi, oldukca ilgi goren bir konudur. Son donemde, FED'in para arzini azaltacagina yonelik beklentilerin artmasi, ozellikle gelismekte olan ulkelerin doviz piyasalarinda nominal doviz kurunda artislara yol acmistir. Buradan hareketle calismada, kuresel ekonomide onemli gelismelerin yasandigi 2003-2014 yillari arasini kapsayacak sekilde, doviz kuru dalgalanmalarinin Turkiye'deki yurt ici fiyatlara etkisi arastirilmistir. Nominal efektif doviz kuru, uretici fiyat endeksi ve tuketici fiyat endekslerinin degisken olarak kullanildigi calismada, 2003:01-2014:11 donemlerini kapsayan aylik veriler kullanilmistir. Yapilan ekonometrik analizde, doviz kurundan uretici fiyat endeksine ve tuketici fiyat endeksinden doviz kuruna tek yonlu nedensellik iliskisi bulunmustur. // ABSTRACT IN ENGLISH: Inflation is one of the main central issue of the economy. Therefore, the price stability is located in the fundamental objectives of government policy. In the countries with floating exchange rate regime, ensuring price stability is quite difficult. Because there is a close relationship between inflation and exchange rate changes. Exchange rate fluctuations reflected in the price, that is defined "pass-through" in international literature, is considerable interest a matter. In recent years, expectations that the Fed's money supply will decrease, has led to an increase in the nominal exchange rate especially in developing countriess foreign exchange market. Thus, in this study, significant development in the global economy to cover the years from 2008-2014, we were analyzed the effect of exchange rate fluctuations to domestic prices in Turkey. The effective exchange rate, producer price index and consumer price index used as variables in the study and used the monthly data between 2008:1-2014-12 periods. According to econometric analysis, that is to say that unidirectional causality was found from exchange rate to producer price index and was found from consumer price index to exchange rate. [web URL: http://iibfdergi.nigde.edu.tr