Marginal greenhouse gas emissions displacement of wind power in Great Britain

There is considerable uncertainty over the effect of wind power on the operation of power systems, and the consequent greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions displacement; this is used to project emissions reductions that inform energy policy. Currently, it is approximated as the average emissions of the whole system, despite an acknowledgement that wind will actually displace only the generators operating on the margin. This article presents a methodology to isolate the marginal emissions displacement of wind power from historical empirical data, taking into account the impact on the operating efficiency of coal and CCGT plants. For Great Britain over 2009–2014, it was found that marginal emissions displacement has generally been underestimated with, for example, the emissions displacement factor for wind being 21% higher than that the average emissions factor in 2010. The actual displacement depends upon the relative merit of coal and CCGT, with a greater discrepancy between marginal displacement and average emissions during more normal system operation, suggesting that policies to penalise high-carbon generation can increase the effectiveness of wind at reducing GHG emissions. Furthermore, it was also identified that wind power is almost as technically effective as demand-side reductions at decreasing GHG emissions from power generation. •Marginal emissions displacement was calculated from operational data for 2009–2014.•Existing estimates of emissions displacement are generally low.•Emissions displacement is a function of the relative merit of coal and CCGT plants.•Policies to penalise high-carbon generation should increase emissions displacement.•Wind almost as effective as demand-reduction at reducing emissions.