As the bat flies

Can virus transmission from bats to humans be predicted? The importance of predicting the timing and location of infectious disease emergence events from animal into human populations is highlighted by the effect of Ebola virus in West Africa. Such predictions are, however, usually hampered by a dearth of data. In a recent analysis of rabies viruses derived from vampire bats (see the photo) in Peru, Streicker et al. show that with sufficient data on both pathogen and host and with accurate models, predictions can be made to inform surveillance and public health efforts ( 1 ).