Security Assurances for the Gulf States: A Bearable Burden?

Saudi Arabia and the other members of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) - the United Arab Emirates (UAE), Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman and Qatar - closely followed negotiations between Iran and the five Security Council members plus Germany (P5+1) that led to agreement on the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), unofficially known as the Nuclear Deal. In commenting on this outcome, an experienced former U.S. diplomat argued that the JCPOA might well take care of Iran's nuclear-weapons ambitions for the medium term but warned that, with sanctions lifted and more resources available for Iran to conduct disruptive activities in Yemen and Syria, this accord might have the effect of increasing the current sense of insecurity on the part of the Gulf countries - and then observed, "That's why strategic reassurance is necessary." Indeed, two months before the JCPOA was signed, the UAE ambassador to Washington, speaking at an Atlantic Council Forum, expressing concern over the continued destabilizing behavior of Iran and the overall dangerous regional environment, claimed that the Gulf states have become interested in a formal security guarantee from the United States: not a "gentleman's agreement," [but] "something institutionalized." A week later, President Obama invited leaders of the Gulf states to a rare summit meeting at Camp David, where mutual security relations were discussed.