Long-term rate of graft failure after ACL reconstruction: a geographic population cohort analysis

Purpose Graft failure following anterior cruciate ligament reconstruction (ACLR) is a devastating injury among patients returning to activity. The goals of this study were to define the long-term rate of graft failure after ACLR in the general population and evaluate factors associated with graft failure. Methods This long-term observational study included a population-based incidence cohort of patients who underwent primary ACLR after diagnosis with new-onset, isolated ACL tears between 1990 and 2010. For all patients, a chart review was performed to collect information related to the initial injury, treatment, and outcomes. Patients were retrospectively followed to determine the incidence of graft failure following ACLR. Results The study cohort consisted of 1355 patients with new-onset, isolated ACL tears treated with ACLR. At a mean follow-up of 10.0 years (±6.4 years) following ACLR, a total of 72 patients (5.3 %) sustained ipsilateral graft failure. The graft survival following ACLR was 99.7 % at 1 year, 96 % at 5 years, 94 % at 10 years, 93 % at 15 years, 92 % at 20 years and 91 % at 25 years. Among patients 22 years or younger ( n = 571), the rate of graft failure was significantly higher compared to patients older than 22 years (6.3 vs. 4.6 %, p = 0.04). The rate of graft failure decreased significantly over the 21-year observation period of this study ( p