Satisfying transportation needs in fast-growing metropolitan areas: mobility solutions for mega-cities in developing countries

Within the first decade of the 21st century, the world's demographic patterns witnessed a fundamental change. For the first time in history, the number of people living in cities exceeded the number of those living in rural areas. This general trend towards urbanisation has forced policy‐makers around the world to quickly find solutions to satisfy the growing demand for transportation services in fast‐growing metropolitan areas—and, in particular, in mega‐cities. Given the fact that many of these fast‐growing metropolitan areas are located in developing countries with very limited financial resources for infrastructure development, economic approaches as well as flexible solutions are required. However, to forecast urban development over a time horizon of 10 years or more is difficult. Nevertheless, the gap between near future, which is considered 3–5 years, and the distant future, a time horizon that covers 15–20 years, requires special attention. Using the so called PRAVOKE method—a method for the analysis of complex networked systems—the author analyses various options for satisfying current and future transportation needs in fast‐growing metropolitan areas. By taking the complex problem of satisfying urban transportation demand and breaking it into several sub‐problems, this paper derives possible development paths, and describes the interlinkages between the expectations and needs of inhabitants in fast‐growing metropolitan areas regarding transportation systems. Furthermore, it links some of the results with technological concepts that are already being applied, assessing their suitability for meeting transportation needs in fast‐growing urban areas.