Estimating nicotine consumption in eight cities using sewage epidemiology based on ammonia nitrogen equivalent population

Sewage epidemiology is a real-time tool used to monitor tobacco consumption. In this study, we investigated the tobacco consumption in eight cities in Jilin province using sewage epidemiology. We collected influent wastewater samples from ten wastewater treatment plants (WWTPs) that serve nearly four million people. Mean nicotine (NIC) loads ranged from 1.42 to 14.2mg/d/capita, whereas mean cotinine (COT) loads showed lower levels with 0.33 to 2.15mg/d/capita. Population size was estimated to provide an accurate and real-time population based on ammonia nitrogen (NH4-N) concentration in influent. To verify the NH4-N equivalent population, we compared these results with the corresponding population estimated based on the expert knowledge of the local WWTPs operators. Daily consumption of NIC was estimated to be approximately 2.39±1.47mg/d/capita. Monte Carlo simulation was used to analyze uncertainty and variability in the number of cigarettes consumed by smokers in the range of 9.8 to 31.4 per day with a median of 16.9. The data of tobacco consumption in this study coordinated strongly with a traditional survey on the consumption of tobacco in China, indicating sewage epidemiology with NH4-N equivalent population estimation may provide a suitable and useful tool for tobacco use monitoring. [Display omitted] •NH4-N equivalent population agreed well with estimations that used expert judgment.•Monte Carlo simulation was used for uncertainty analysis.•Tobacco consumption was estimated by sewage epidemiology and traditional survey methods.