Validation of serological models for staging and prognostication of HCC in patients from a Japanese nationwide survey

Background Two serology-based scoring models for prognostication of patients with hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC), the BALAD and BALAD-2 models, were applied to a Japanese cohort of a nationwide follow-up survey of HCC. The ability of these models to predict the progression of HCC and the deterioration of liver function and to assess prognosis was evaluated. Methods BALAD and BALAD-2 scores were calculated in 24,029 patients from a cohort of Japanese nationwide survey based on the serum levels of five markers (bilirubin, albumin, lens culinaris agglutinin-reactive alpha-fetoprotein, alpha-fetoprotein, and des-gamma-carboxy prothrombin) measured at the time of HCC diagnosis. The associations of these scores with the progression of HCC and liver function and with survival rates were analyzed. Results There were good correlations between BALAD and BALAD-2 scores and the progression of HCC and Child–Pugh class. Both scores accurately categorized patients into risk groups with different survival rates. BALAD-2 showed superior discrimination of patient survival compared with the original BALAD. Conclusions Serology-based scoring models for prognostication, especially the BALAD-2 model, were useful for staging and prognostication of survival in a cohort of Japanese patients with HCC from a nationwide survey.