The process of energy-related carbon emissions and influencing mechanism research in Xinjiang

Reduction of greenhouse gases( GHG) has become a primary concern for policy makers and government managers globally. China has become the world's largest primary energy consumer and carbon emitter after decades of rapid economic growth. Research on regional carbon emissions is crucial for China to achieve its reduction targets. Presently,the biggest challenge faced by the local government is to reduce carbon emissions,and ensure that it does not hinder socialeconomic development. This case study in Xinjiang,a less developed area in western China,aimed to determine the most important carbon emission contributors and analyze energy-related carbon emissions. Our estimates were based on the provincial and national energy statistics. Data resources available for the present study included statistics on populations,gross domestic product( GDP),and total energy consumption from 1952 to 2010. Carbon emissions due to energy consumption were calculated according to the method of the IPCC Guidelines for National Greenhouse Gas Inventories. Itwas observed that the total energy consumption in Xinjiang increased from 0. 393 Mtce in 1952 to 82. 902 Mtce in 2010,representing a 210.95-fold increase over the period of 59 years. Energy-related carbon emissions in the area increased from0.285 Mt in 1952 to 53.662 Mt in 2010,representing a 188.23-fold increase over the study period. We analyzed the changes in the total carbon emissions and carbon emissions structure from 1952 to 2010. Coal consumption was found to be the biggest contributor to total carbon emission in Xinjiang. The share of carbon emissions from coal consumption decreased until2004,but increased afterward. The share of carbon emissions from natural gas increased steadily from 0. 12% in 1954 to8.66% in 2010. The Logarithmic Mean Divisia Index( LMDI) technique based on an extended Kaya identity was used to determine the five main energy-related carbon emissions in Xinjiang. We first used the LMDI method to decompose carbon dioxide emissions on a yearly basis. To understand of the factors influencing long-term carbon emissions,we divided the carbon emissions process into six stages based on the changing trends of socio-economic development and carbon emissions,historically. This method included measurements of the effects of population,affluence,energy intensity,renewable energy penetration,and emission coefficient for the different stages of the process. Decomposition results showed that affluence and population