Modeling of urban change using remote sensing data and cellular automata technique

The understanding of urban development trends is crucial to the Egyptian government, developers, planners, resource managers, and environmental protection agencies, who are saddled with the responsibilities of conserving valuable resources and maintaining environmental integrity. The Greater Cairo Metropolitan Area is one of the most intensively populated areas in the world and experiences rapid urban expansion due to population growth in residential complexes and work facilities. Urban expansion is being witnessed in both formal and informal settlements. Informal urban expansion leads to poor planning and development. Remote sensing and modeling techniques are effective tools for monitoring and planning such phenomena. This paper utilizes the use of Landsat data and cellular automata techniques to quantify and map urban growth in the Greater Cairo Metropolitan Area. Additionally, these tools are used to estimate urbanization trends with a view of future growth pattern forecast for 2050. The region has experienced extensive conversion to urban land cover over the last 20 years, accounting for approximately 10 % of the former agriculture area (21,113 ha). Over this period, urban areas expanded by 65,460 ha, equivalent to 3273 ha per annum. It is predicted that the study area will continue to experience a rapid increase in the urbanization rate. The Greater Cairo Metropolitan Area is projected to lose approximately 44,544 ha of fertile agriculture land by 2050 should no action be taken.