Population viability analysis predicts decreasing genetic diversity in ex situ populations of the Itasenpara bitterling Acheilognathus longipinnis from the Kiso River, Japan

To conserve endangered species, the maintenance of ex situ captive populations with sustainable genetic diversity is often required, in combination with population viability analysis (PVA). Since 2010, the threatened Itasenpara bitterling Acheilognathus longipinnis lineages in the Kiso region, Japan, have been maintained in ex situ rearing facilities to allow for conservation efforts. In this study, we obtained microsatellite data from DNA extracted from these captive populations to elucidate their genetic diversity and effective population size. The populations of several initial generations indicated a deviation from Hardy–Weinberg equilibrium, probably due to the limited number of extracted founder individuals analyzed. The effective population size of the captive population tended to increase over the course of generations, although the degree of genetic diversity tended to decrease highlighting the concern for the progression of inbreeding. Our prediction based on the PVA suggests that the maintenance of the captive population under the current conditions could lead to extinction of the Itasenpara bitterling in 50 years. In contrast, simultaneously increasing the carrying capacity and individual exchange among populations appears to enhance the effective management of captive Itasenpara bitterling populations.