Global warming projection in the 21st century based on an observational data‐driven model

Global warming has been projected primarily by Earth system models (ESMs). Complementary to this approach, here we provide the decadal and long‐term global warming projections based on an observational data‐driven model. This model combines natural multidecadal variability with anthropogenic warming that depends on the history of annual emissions. It shows good skill in decadal hindcasts with the recent warming slowdown well captured. While our ensemble mean temperature projections at the end of 21st century are consistent with those from ESMs, our decadal warming projection of 0.35 (0.30‐0.43) K from 1986–2005 to 2016–2035 is within their projection range and only two‐thirds of the ensemble mean from ESMs. Our predicted warming rate in the next few years is slower than in the 1980s and 1990s, followed by a greater warming rate. Our projection uncertainty range is just one‐third of that from ESMs, and its implication is also discussed. Key Points Our observational data‐driven model shows good skill in the decadal hindcasts initialized from 1984, 1994, and 2004 Our ensemble mean warming projection from 1986‐2005 to 2016–2035 is just two‐thirds of that from CMIP5 Earth system models Our ensemble mean temperature projections by the year 2100 are consistent with CMIP5 model results