Empirically downscaled temperature scenarios for Svalbard

Empirically downscaled climate scenarios are presented for the Svalbard region, based on mixed 2-meter temperature and sea level pressure fields. The scenarios are derived using the large-scale fields from the ECHAM4-GSDIO, HadCM3, and NCAR-CSM climate change experiments, and utilizing common empirical orthogonal functions. There are substantial differences between the scenarios derived from the various models. Those downscaled from the HadCM3 model indicate significantly stronger warming than those based on the ECHAM4-GSDIO and NCAR-CSM models. Much of these differences can be explained in terms of the different descriptions of the sea-ice extent. The sea-ice in the HadCM3 scenario is subject to a substantial retreat in the Barents Sea, whereas there is no melting in the same region in the NCAR-CSM model.