Carbon Emission Mitigation Potentials of Different Policy Scenarios and Their Effects on International Aviation in the Korean Context

The objective of this study is to seek better policy options for greenhouse gas (GHG) emission reduction in Korea's international aviation industry by analyzing economic efficiency and environmental effectiveness with a system dynamics (SD) model. Accordingly, we measured airlines sales and CO2 emission reductions to evaluate economic efficiency and environmental effectiveness, respectively, for various policies. The results show that the average carbon emission reduction rates of four policies compared to the business-as-usual (BAU) scenario between 2015 and 2030 are 4.00% (Voluntary Agreement), 7.25% (Emission Trading System or ETS-30,000), 8.33% (Carbon Tax or CT-37,500), and 8.48% (Emission Charge System or EC-30,000). The average rate of decrease in airline sales compared to BAU for the ETS policy is 0.1% at 2030. Our results show that the ETS approach is the most efficient of all the analyzed CO2 reduction policies in economic terms, while the EC approach is the best policy to reduce GHG emissions. This study provides a foundation for devising effective response measures pertaining to GHG reduction and supports decision making on carbon tax and carbon credit pricing.