Extinction-Rate Estimates for a Modern Neotropical Flora

Concerns about elevated extinction rates in the tropics are a common feature of the conservation literature, but direct measurements are rare. We present the first quantitative estimates of extinction rate in a complete Neotropical flora based on historical plant-collection records, quantitative measurements of forest loss and plant diversity, and the conservation status of endemic plant species in Ecuador. Our analyses suggest that 19-46 endemic plant species have gone extinct in Ecuador over the last 250 years, mostly because of habitat loss, and therefore are now globally extinct. An additional 282 species, nearly 7% of Ecuador's endemic flora, qualify as critically endangered. We found evidence of impending large-scale plant extinctions in the country's coastal and Andean forests, but little extinction and low potential for extinction in the Amazonian lowlands.