Staying in the Countryside or Moving to the City: The Determinants of Villagers' Urban Settlement Intentions in China

China has experienced an unprecedented surge of rural to urban migration since the mid-1980s, which has led to rapid growth of the urban population, especially in major cities. This study investigates urban settlement intentions of 4,116 rural residents using data from the Chinese General Social Survey in 2010. Based on a multilevel logistic model, the study focuses on the role of individual, household, and contextual factors in determining urban settlement intentions of rural residents. It was found that more than 90 percent of villagers in the survey do not intend to move to and settle in a city within the next five years. Among those who have some intention to settle in a city, nearly two-thirds plan to settle in small towns or small cities rather than larger cities. The results show that villagers' urban settlement intentions are shaped, both independently and interactively, by individual, household, and contextual factors.