Plate convergence and long-term crustal deformation in central Japan

Surveys by continuous Global Positioning System in and around Japan revealed that the Amurian Plate collides with the North American Plate in central Japan by ∼2 cm/yr. Long‐term crustal deformation seems to be influenced mainly by this collision although subduction of oceanic plates governs short‐term elastic deformation over the arc. Here we study the long‐term deformation field by carefully removing the short‐term signals inferred from a‐priori plate convergence vectors and coupling strengths predicted by a thermal model. The obtained field shows that the change in velocities occurs along the longitude 135° ∼ 137°, and there exist a relatively rigid block and zones accommodating strains. Characteristic compressional deformation is found northwest of Izu due possibly to the collision of the Izu‐Bonin arc with Honshu. Plate convergence rate along the Nankai‐Suruga Trough is considerably smaller in eastern parts, due partly to the transition from the Amurian to the North American Plate of the landward side, and partly to the motion of the Izu Microplate relative to the Philippine Sea Plate. This accounts for longer recurrence intervals of interplate earthquakes in the Suruga Trough where the Tokai earthquake is anticipated to occur.