A preliminary statistical model for hydraulic fracture‐induced seismicity in the Western Canada Sedimentary Basin
We characterize the statistical relationship between hydraulic fracturing and seismicity in western Canada by using the concept of cellular seismicity. We determine the regionally averaged probability that hydraulic fracture operations will be associated with M ≥ 3 seismicity within a 10 km grid cel...
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| Veröffentlicht in: | Geophysical research letters 2016-10, Vol.43 (19), p.10,164-10,172 |
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| container_title | Geophysical research letters |
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| creator | Ghofrani, Hadi Atkinson, Gail M. |
| description | We characterize the statistical relationship between hydraulic fracturing and seismicity in western Canada by using the concept of cellular seismicity. We determine the regionally averaged probability that hydraulic fracture operations will be associated with M ≥ 3 seismicity within a 10 km grid cell. This rate is 0.01 to 0.026 at the 95th percentile confidence limit. Monte Carlo simulations confirm that the observed correlations are extremely unlikely (≪1%) to have been obtained by chance. Proximity to a disposal well and proximity to the Swan Hills Formation, which has been suggested as a proxy for basement controlled faults, appear to increase the likelihood that hydraulic fracturing will trigger seismicity.
Key Points
In the WCSB, the probability that hydraulic fracturing may induce events of M ≥ 3 is 0.010 to 0.026 at the 95th percentile confidence limit
The proximity of a nearby disposal well increases the likelihood that hydraulic fracture operations will be associated with seismicity
Proximity to the Swan Hills Formation is associated with increased seismogenic potential of hydraulic fracture operations |
| doi_str_mv | 10.1002/2016GL070042 |
| format | Article |
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Key Points
In the WCSB, the probability that hydraulic fracturing may induce events of M ≥ 3 is 0.010 to 0.026 at the 95th percentile confidence limit
The proximity of a nearby disposal well increases the likelihood that hydraulic fracture operations will be associated with seismicity
Proximity to the Swan Hills Formation is associated with increased seismogenic potential of hydraulic fracture operations</description><identifier>ISSN: 0094-8276</identifier><identifier>EISSN: 1944-8007</identifier><identifier>DOI: 10.1002/2016GL070042</identifier><language>eng</language><publisher>Washington: John Wiley & Sons, Inc</publisher><subject>Computer simulation ; Confidence intervals ; Confidence limits ; Drilling ; Faults ; Formations ; hydraulic fracture‐induced seismicity ; Hydraulic fracturing ; Mathematical models ; Monte Carlo methods ; Monte Carlo simulation ; Probability theory ; Proximity ; Sedimentary basins ; seismic hazard due to induced earthquake ; Seismic phenomena ; Seismicity ; spatiotemporal correlation of induced seismicity ; Statistical analysis ; Statistical methods ; Statistical models</subject><ispartof>Geophysical research letters, 2016-10, Vol.43 (19), p.10,164-10,172</ispartof><rights>2016. American Geophysical Union. All Rights Reserved.</rights><lds50>peer_reviewed</lds50><oa>free_for_read</oa><woscitedreferencessubscribed>false</woscitedreferencessubscribed><citedby>FETCH-LOGICAL-a4615-2dd794ca636c67445412823396dec30035c2f3e1693a317e0b8bafed633bb2e13</citedby><cites>FETCH-LOGICAL-a4615-2dd794ca636c67445412823396dec30035c2f3e1693a317e0b8bafed633bb2e13</cites></display><links><openurl>$$Topenurl_article</openurl><openurlfulltext>$$Topenurlfull_article</openurlfulltext><thumbnail>$$Tsyndetics_thumb_exl</thumbnail><linktopdf>$$Uhttps://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdf/10.1002%2F2016GL070042$$EPDF$$P50$$Gwiley$$H</linktopdf><linktohtml>$$Uhttps://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1002%2F2016GL070042$$EHTML$$P50$$Gwiley$$H</linktohtml><link.rule.ids>314,780,784,1417,1433,11514,27924,27925,45574,45575,46409,46468,46833,46892</link.rule.ids></links><search><creatorcontrib>Ghofrani, Hadi</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Atkinson, Gail M.</creatorcontrib><title>A preliminary statistical model for hydraulic fracture‐induced seismicity in the Western Canada Sedimentary Basin</title><title>Geophysical research letters</title><description>We characterize the statistical relationship between hydraulic fracturing and seismicity in western Canada by using the concept of cellular seismicity. We determine the regionally averaged probability that hydraulic fracture operations will be associated with M ≥ 3 seismicity within a 10 km grid cell. This rate is 0.01 to 0.026 at the 95th percentile confidence limit. Monte Carlo simulations confirm that the observed correlations are extremely unlikely (≪1%) to have been obtained by chance. Proximity to a disposal well and proximity to the Swan Hills Formation, which has been suggested as a proxy for basement controlled faults, appear to increase the likelihood that hydraulic fracturing will trigger seismicity.
Key Points
In the WCSB, the probability that hydraulic fracturing may induce events of M ≥ 3 is 0.010 to 0.026 at the 95th percentile confidence limit
The proximity of a nearby disposal well increases the likelihood that hydraulic fracture operations will be associated with seismicity
Proximity to the Swan Hills Formation is associated with increased seismogenic potential of hydraulic fracture operations</description><subject>Computer simulation</subject><subject>Confidence intervals</subject><subject>Confidence limits</subject><subject>Drilling</subject><subject>Faults</subject><subject>Formations</subject><subject>hydraulic fracture‐induced seismicity</subject><subject>Hydraulic fracturing</subject><subject>Mathematical models</subject><subject>Monte Carlo methods</subject><subject>Monte Carlo simulation</subject><subject>Probability theory</subject><subject>Proximity</subject><subject>Sedimentary basins</subject><subject>seismic hazard due to induced earthquake</subject><subject>Seismic phenomena</subject><subject>Seismicity</subject><subject>spatiotemporal correlation of induced seismicity</subject><subject>Statistical analysis</subject><subject>Statistical methods</subject><subject>Statistical models</subject><issn>0094-8276</issn><issn>1944-8007</issn><fulltext>true</fulltext><rsrctype>article</rsrctype><creationdate>2016</creationdate><recordtype>article</recordtype><recordid>eNqN0c2KFDEQB_BGFBx3vfkAAS8eHK1KJen0cR10XBgQdlc8Npmkms3SnR6Tbpa5-Qg-o09iL-NBPCyeqg4__tRHVb1CeIcA8r0ENNsd1ABKPqlW2Ci1tgD102oF0Cy9rM3z6kUpdwBAQLiqyoU4ZO7jEJPLR1EmN8UyRe96MYyBe9GNWdweQ3ZzH73osvPTnPnXj58xhdlzEIVjGaKP01HEJKZbFt-4TJyT2LjkghPXHOLAaXrI_-BKTOfVs871hV_-qWfV108fbzaf17sv28vNxW7tlEG9liHUjfLOkPGmVkorlFYSNSawp2UB7WVHjKYhR1gz7O3edRwM0X4vGemsenPKPeTx-7wM1Q6xeO57l3icS4tWa7IGFf0HpZoAEfVCX_9D78Y5p2WRFhuNRjfW4qPKEiFZreyi3p6Uz2Mpmbv2kOOwHKpFaB9e2v790oXLE7-PPR8fte32aqc1GE2_AcC5oYk</recordid><startdate>20161016</startdate><enddate>20161016</enddate><creator>Ghofrani, Hadi</creator><creator>Atkinson, Gail M.</creator><general>John Wiley & Sons, Inc</general><scope>AAYXX</scope><scope>CITATION</scope><scope>7TG</scope><scope>7TN</scope><scope>8FD</scope><scope>F1W</scope><scope>FR3</scope><scope>H8D</scope><scope>H96</scope><scope>KL.</scope><scope>KR7</scope><scope>L.G</scope><scope>L7M</scope></search><sort><creationdate>20161016</creationdate><title>A preliminary statistical model for hydraulic fracture‐induced seismicity in the Western Canada Sedimentary Basin</title><author>Ghofrani, Hadi ; Atkinson, Gail M.</author></sort><facets><frbrtype>5</frbrtype><frbrgroupid>cdi_FETCH-LOGICAL-a4615-2dd794ca636c67445412823396dec30035c2f3e1693a317e0b8bafed633bb2e13</frbrgroupid><rsrctype>articles</rsrctype><prefilter>articles</prefilter><language>eng</language><creationdate>2016</creationdate><topic>Computer simulation</topic><topic>Confidence intervals</topic><topic>Confidence limits</topic><topic>Drilling</topic><topic>Faults</topic><topic>Formations</topic><topic>hydraulic fracture‐induced seismicity</topic><topic>Hydraulic fracturing</topic><topic>Mathematical models</topic><topic>Monte Carlo methods</topic><topic>Monte Carlo simulation</topic><topic>Probability theory</topic><topic>Proximity</topic><topic>Sedimentary basins</topic><topic>seismic hazard due to induced earthquake</topic><topic>Seismic phenomena</topic><topic>Seismicity</topic><topic>spatiotemporal correlation of induced seismicity</topic><topic>Statistical analysis</topic><topic>Statistical methods</topic><topic>Statistical models</topic><toplevel>peer_reviewed</toplevel><toplevel>online_resources</toplevel><creatorcontrib>Ghofrani, Hadi</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Atkinson, Gail M.</creatorcontrib><collection>CrossRef</collection><collection>Meteorological & Geoastrophysical Abstracts</collection><collection>Oceanic Abstracts</collection><collection>Technology Research Database</collection><collection>ASFA: Aquatic Sciences and Fisheries Abstracts</collection><collection>Engineering Research Database</collection><collection>Aerospace Database</collection><collection>Aquatic Science & Fisheries Abstracts (ASFA) 2: Ocean Technology, Policy & Non-Living Resources</collection><collection>Meteorological & Geoastrophysical Abstracts - Academic</collection><collection>Civil Engineering Abstracts</collection><collection>Aquatic Science & Fisheries Abstracts (ASFA) Professional</collection><collection>Advanced Technologies Database with Aerospace</collection><jtitle>Geophysical research letters</jtitle></facets><delivery><delcategory>Remote Search Resource</delcategory><fulltext>fulltext</fulltext></delivery><addata><au>Ghofrani, Hadi</au><au>Atkinson, Gail M.</au><format>journal</format><genre>article</genre><ristype>JOUR</ristype><atitle>A preliminary statistical model for hydraulic fracture‐induced seismicity in the Western Canada Sedimentary Basin</atitle><jtitle>Geophysical research letters</jtitle><date>2016-10-16</date><risdate>2016</risdate><volume>43</volume><issue>19</issue><spage>10,164</spage><epage>10,172</epage><pages>10,164-10,172</pages><issn>0094-8276</issn><eissn>1944-8007</eissn><abstract>We characterize the statistical relationship between hydraulic fracturing and seismicity in western Canada by using the concept of cellular seismicity. We determine the regionally averaged probability that hydraulic fracture operations will be associated with M ≥ 3 seismicity within a 10 km grid cell. This rate is 0.01 to 0.026 at the 95th percentile confidence limit. Monte Carlo simulations confirm that the observed correlations are extremely unlikely (≪1%) to have been obtained by chance. Proximity to a disposal well and proximity to the Swan Hills Formation, which has been suggested as a proxy for basement controlled faults, appear to increase the likelihood that hydraulic fracturing will trigger seismicity.
Key Points
In the WCSB, the probability that hydraulic fracturing may induce events of M ≥ 3 is 0.010 to 0.026 at the 95th percentile confidence limit
The proximity of a nearby disposal well increases the likelihood that hydraulic fracture operations will be associated with seismicity
Proximity to the Swan Hills Formation is associated with increased seismogenic potential of hydraulic fracture operations</abstract><cop>Washington</cop><pub>John Wiley & Sons, Inc</pub><doi>10.1002/2016GL070042</doi><tpages>9</tpages><oa>free_for_read</oa></addata></record> |
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| ispartof | Geophysical research letters, 2016-10, Vol.43 (19), p.10,164-10,172 |
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| source | Elektronische Zeitschriftenbibliothek - Frei zugängliche E-Journals; Access via Wiley Online Library; Wiley Free Content; Wiley-Blackwell AGU Digital Library |
| subjects | Computer simulation Confidence intervals Confidence limits Drilling Faults Formations hydraulic fracture‐induced seismicity Hydraulic fracturing Mathematical models Monte Carlo methods Monte Carlo simulation Probability theory Proximity Sedimentary basins seismic hazard due to induced earthquake Seismic phenomena Seismicity spatiotemporal correlation of induced seismicity Statistical analysis Statistical methods Statistical models |
| title | A preliminary statistical model for hydraulic fracture‐induced seismicity in the Western Canada Sedimentary Basin |
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