A preliminary statistical model for hydraulic fracture‐induced seismicity in the Western Canada Sedimentary Basin

We characterize the statistical relationship between hydraulic fracturing and seismicity in western Canada by using the concept of cellular seismicity. We determine the regionally averaged probability that hydraulic fracture operations will be associated with M ≥ 3 seismicity within a 10 km grid cell. This rate is 0.01 to 0.026 at the 95th percentile confidence limit. Monte Carlo simulations confirm that the observed correlations are extremely unlikely (≪1%) to have been obtained by chance. Proximity to a disposal well and proximity to the Swan Hills Formation, which has been suggested as a proxy for basement controlled faults, appear to increase the likelihood that hydraulic fracturing will trigger seismicity. Key Points In the WCSB, the probability that hydraulic fracturing may induce events of M ≥ 3 is 0.010 to 0.026 at the 95th percentile confidence limit The proximity of a nearby disposal well increases the likelihood that hydraulic fracture operations will be associated with seismicity Proximity to the Swan Hills Formation is associated with increased seismogenic potential of hydraulic fracture operations