Global change and the tendency of flood in Zhejiang

From the analysis of the historical and measured data, some tendencies of flood in Zhejiang in the global change are predicted: 1) low water year will take the upper hand in ten years ore more, the global change will make the temporal and spatial changes of flood in Zhejiang more violent, and the flood disasters in coast area more serious. 2) The large and moderate floods in Zhejiang Province usually appear near the peak and valley year of sunspot activity. 2004 and 2009 will be, respectively, the peak and valley year of the 23 the period of sunspot activity, great attention should be paid to the situation around the two years. 3) Great importance also should be attached to the year of El Nino or the next since the Zhejiang floods obviously respond to El Nino, 4) According to the historical data of serious typhoon disasters in Zhejiang and the analysis of grey catastrophic forecast, it is known that the first, second and third years of serious typhoon disasters in Zhejiang will appear in 2001, 2004 and 2008,