Exposing Uncertainty in Bid Preparation of Steel Construction Cost Estimating: II. Comparative Analysis and Quantitative C-I-V-I-L Classification

AbstractBid prices vary greatly based on assumptions about uncertain conditions. In steel construction bidding, the contingency amount is typically used as a bid line item to factor in the unexpected—including impact of uncertainty—to the lump-sum bid price. Therefore, the goal of this research is to explore the impacts of uncertainties that contribute to contingency amounts. The costs of uncertainties in bid documents of several real-world school projects have been calculated. Contributions to the body of knowledge are (1) providing illustrative examples of real-world uncertainties from the data set; (2) statistically analyzing the relative occurrence and cost significance to increase estimators’ awareness when they evaluate uncertainties; and (3) comparing the cost significance from the data with officially recommended contingency percentages. This research enables steel estimators to make quantitative-based decisions on contingencies in their estimates should various major types of uncertainties arise without an opportunity to resolve them.