A scenario-based roadmapping method for strategic planning and forecasting: A case study in a testing, inspection and certification company

Nowadays, flexibility is one of key factors when dealing with future changes in the complex and rapidly changing business environment. Various researchers and practitioners are paying attention to the concept of scenario planning in regard to the roadmapping in their market and technology activities. However, the process of the existing scenario-based roadmapping methods is conceptual and relatively little attention has been paid to embedding scenarios with future changes into roadmaps for strategic planning and decision-making at organizational level. In this paper, a scenario-based roadmapping (SBRM) method for strategic planning and decision-making is presented which incorporates scenario planning (macro level) and roadmapping (micro level) perspectives. The proposed method was designed and developed for companies to build possible scenarios reflecting future situations in practice, to assess the impact of each scenario, and to develop roadmaps that incorporate the external and internal issues as well as the actions according to the scenarios. To realize the capability of the proposed method, a case study was conducted in a Global Testing, Inspection and Certification (TIC) company in Hong Kong. •A scenario-based roadmapping method builds for strategic planning and forecasting.•The method embeds scenarios of future change into roadmap for strategic planning.•Possible scenarios are generated and tested to reflect situations in practice.•Roadmaps and action plans are generated according to the possible scenarios.