Estimating the development rate of the tomato leaf miner, Tuta absoluta (Lepidoptera: Gelechiidae), using linear and non‐linear models

BACKGROUND Tuta absoluta Meyrick (Lepidoptera: Gelechiidae) is native to South America and has recently invaded European, African and Asian countries, where it is causing severe damage to tomato crops leading to an increase in the number of insecticide applications. This situation has prompted a demand for alternative pest management strategies aiming to control T. absoluta and concomitantly reduce insecticide applications. The development period for immature stages of T. absoluta at constant temperatures was modelled to select appropriate mathematical functions for simulating its development. RESULTS The performance of the models varied according to the insect development stage, but in general all models performed well considering the statistical criteria used. Discrimination among models was possible only when the reliability of the temperature thresholds estimated by the models was used as an additional criterion. In this case, the models Briere‐1, Lactin‐2 and Shi proved adequate to describe the relationship between temperature and development rate of T. absoluta. CONCLUSION These models provide an important tool to predict the occurrence of the immature stages of T. absoluta in the field in order to determine the best period for implementing control measures. This is an important contribution to the development of pest management strategies for T. absoluta. © 2016 Society of Chemical Industry