Pre-development conditions to assess the impact of growth in an urbanizing watershed in Northern Virginia

•Used model to estimate pre-development nutrient loads for urbanizing watershed.•Developed a measures “developed-excess” to quantify anthropogenic impact.•Developed a measure “sub-area developed-excess” to compare different areas.•Load per unit area from urban areas was found to be higher than agricultural areas. Pre-development conditions are an easily understood state to which watershed nonpoint nutrient reduction targets may be referenced. Using the pre-development baseline, a “developed-excess” measure may be computed for changes due to anthropogenic development. Developed-excess is independent of many geographical, physical, and hydrological characteristics of the region and after normalization by area may be used for comparison among various sub-sets of the watershed, such as jurisdictions or land use types. We have demonstrated this method by computing pre-development nitrogen and phosphorus loads entering the Occoquan Reservoir from its tributary watershed in Northern Virginia. The pre-development loads in this study were computed using the calibrated water quality models for the period 2002–2007. Current forest land was used as a surrogate for pre-development land use conditions for the watershed and developed-excess was estimated for fluvial loads of Total Inorganic Nitrogen (TIN) and Orthophosphate-Phosphorus (OP) by subtracting simulated predevelopment loads from observed loads. It was observed that within the study period (2002–2007), the average annual developed-excess represented about 30% of the TIN and OP average annual loads exported to the reservoir. Comparison of the two disturbed land use types, urban and agricultural, showed that urban land uses exported significantly more excess nonpoint nutrient load per unit area than agricultural land uses.