No significant steady state surface creep along the North Anatolian Fault offshore Istanbul: Results of 6months of seafloor acoustic ranging

The submarine Istanbul-Silivri fault segment, within 15km of Istanbul, is the only portion of the North Anatolian Fault that has not ruptured in the last 250years. We report first results of a seafloor acoustic ranging experiment to quantify current horizontal deformation along this segment and assess whether the segment is creeping aseismically or accumulating stress to be released in a future event. Ten transponders were installed to monitor length variations along 15 baselines. A joint least squares inversion for across-fault baseline changes, accounting for sound speed drift at each transponder, precludes fault displacement rates larger than a few millimeters per year during the 6month observation period. Forward modeling shows that the data better fit a locked state or a very moderate surface creep--less than 6mm/yr compared to a far-field slip rate of over 20mm/yr--suggesting that the fault segment is currently accumulating stress.