Preoperative platelet-to-lymphocyte ratio improves the performance of the international consensus guidelines in predicting malignant pancreatic cystic neoplasms

Abstract Introduction To determine if neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio (NLR) and platelet-to-lymphocyte ratio (PLR) were predictive of malignancy in pancreatic cystic neoplasms (PCN) and if these improved the performance of the international consensus guidelines (ICG) in the initial triage of these patients. Methods 318 patients with surgically-treated suspected PCN were retrospectively reviewed. Malignant neoplasms were defined as neoplasms harbouring invasive carcinoma. The optimal cut-off for NLR and PLR were determined by plotting the receiver operating characteristics (ROC) curves of NLR/PLR in predicting malignant PCN and utilizing the Youden index. Results The optimal NLR and PLR cut-offs were determined to be 3.33 and 205, respectively. Univariate analyses demonstrated that symptomatic PCNs, age, obstructive jaundice, presence of solid component, dilatation of main pancreatic duct ≥10 mm, high NLR and high PLR were predictive of a malignant PCN. Multivariate analyses demonstrated that obstructive jaundice, presence of solid component, MPD ≥10 mm and high PLR but not NLR were independent predictors of a malignant PCN. A high PLR significantly predicted invasive carcinoma in patients classified within the ICGHR group. Comparison between the ROC curves of the ICG versus ICG plus high PLR in predicting malignant PCN demonstrated a significant improvement in the accuracy of the ICG when PLR was included [AUC 0.784 (95% CI: 0.740–0.829) vs AUC 0.822 (95% CI: 0.772–0.872) (p = 0.0032)]. Conclusions High PLR is an independent predictor of malignancy in PCN. The addition of PLR as a criterion to the ICG improved the accuracy of these guidelines in detecting invasive neoplasms.