Semiquantitative Imaging Biomarkers of Knee Osteoarthritis Progression: Data From the Foundation for the National Institutes of Health Osteoarthritis Biomarkers Consortium

Objective To determine the association between changes in semiquantitative magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) biomarkers over 24 months and radiographic and pain progression over 48 months in knees with mild‐to‐moderate osteoarthritis (OA). Methods We undertook a nested case–control study as part of the Foundation for the National Institutes of Health Biomarkers Consortium Project. We used multivariable logistic regression models to examine the association between change over 24 months in semiquantitative MRI markers and radiographic and pain progression in knee OA. MRIs were read according to the MRI OA Knee Score system. We focused on changes in cartilage, osteophytes, meniscus, bone marrow lesions, Hoffa‐synovitis, and effusion‐synovitis. Results The most parsimonious model included changes in cartilage thickness and surface area, effusion‐synovitis, Hoffa‐synovitis, and meniscal morphology (C statistic 0.740). Compared with no worsening, worsening in cartilage thickness in ≥3 subregions was associated with 2.8‐fold (95% confidence interval [95% CI] 1.3–5.9) greater odds of being a case, and worsening in cartilage surface area in ≥3 subregions was associated with 2.4‐fold (95% CI 1.3–4.4) greater odds of being a case. Worsening of meniscal morphology in any region was associated with 2.2‐fold (95% CI 1.3–3.8) greater odds of being a case. Worsening effusion‐synovitis and Hoffa‐synovitis were also associated with a greater odds of being a case (odds ratios 2.7 and 2.0, respectively). Conclusion Twenty‐four–month changes in cartilage thickness, cartilage surface area, effusion‐synovitis, Hoffa‐synovitis, and meniscal morphology were independently associated with OA progression, suggesting that these factors may serve as efficacy biomarkers in clinical trials of disease‐modifying interventions for knee OA.