Extreme chromosomal instability forecasts improved outcome in ER-negative breast cancer: a prospective validation cohort study from the TACT trial

Chromosomal instability (CIN) has been shown to be associated with drug resistance and poor clinical outcome in several cancer types. However, in oestrogen receptor (ER)-negative breast cancer we have previously demonstrated that extreme CIN is associated with improved clinical outcome, consistent with a negative impact of CIN on tumour fitness and growth. The aim of this current study was to validate this finding using previously defined CIN thresholds in a much larger prospective cohort from a randomised, controlled, clinical trial. As a surrogate measurement of CIN, dual centromeric fluorescence in situ hybridisation was performed for both chromosomes 2 and 15 on 1173 tumours from the breast cancer TACT trial (CRUK01/001). Each tumour was scored manually and the mean percentage of cells deviating from the modal centromere number was used to define four CIN groups (MCD1–4), where tumours in the MCD4 group were defined as having extreme CIN. In a multivariate analysis of disease-free survival, with a median follow-up of 91 months, increasing CIN was associated with improved outcome in patients with ER-negative cancer (P trend = 0.03). A similar pattern was seen in ER-negative/HER2-negative cancers (Ptrend = 0.007). This prospective validation cohort study further substantiated the association between extreme CIN and improved outcome in ER-negative breast cancers. Identifying such patients with extreme CIN may help distinguish good from poor prognostic groups, and therefore support treatment and risk stratification in this aggressive breast cancer subtype.