A predictive mechanical model for evaluating vertebral fracture probability in lumbar spine under different osteoporotic drug therapies

Highlights • Method for estimating the fracture risk in osteoporotic patients. • Mechanical model based on Damage and Fracture Mechanics and DXA measurements, evaluates the mechanical strength of bone from BMD, an its evolution over time for the different treatments evaluated. • Implementation of evolutionary algorithm combined with a finite element model of the spine to predict probability of fracture for different osteoporotic treatments • The incorporation of clinical measurements and simulation results will be useful for an individualized monitoring and treatment in specific patients. • The model predict the evolution of vertebral fracture probability , by comparing the natural history and the expected evolution under different therapies