Ex-post economic analysis of photovoltaic power in the Spanish grid: Alternative scenarios

Nowadays, photovoltaic technology as a whole is considered to cause deficit to the Spanish power system, because the bonuses that it receives are higher than the savings generated over the electricity prices thanks to the merit-order-effect. However, the bonuses to generation for new facilities have undergone significant declines over the past five years, along with the drop in the prices of modules. That means that the economic influence of photovoltaic power is highly penalized by the existing feed-in-tariff scheme presented in the years 2007 and 2008, which gave way to the Spanish photovoltaic boom. Based on these facts, the economic profitability to the system of the latest installed photovoltaic plants is analyzed; reaching the conclusion that the facilities registered in and after the second quarter of 2011 have been profitable to the system in the fourth quarter of 2012, and are very close to being profitable for the whole year. Finally, based on the aforementioned conclusions, alternative scenarios for the deployment of photovoltaic power in the Spanish grid are presented, based on a temporary redistribution of the facilities that fostered the boom, to provide a better understanding of the situation. This knowledge may be a valuable tool for less developed countries in terms of photovoltaic energy. •Photovoltaic technology has caused an economic deficit to the Spanish power grid.•Photovoltaic analysis is influenced by the deficiencies in the RD 661/2007.•Excessive growth of photovoltaic facilities in the years 2007 and 2008.•Alternative scenarios have been presented for the expansion of photovoltaic energy.•Cost varied between €2556.9M and €1261.2M throughout the 27 alternative scenarios.